CEOs worried about global growth, and they have a record of being right

There’s one question on the minds of investors everywhere heading into 2019: In the midst of fears of additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and a nearly year-long trade war between the U.S. and China, what does global growth look like in the year ahead?

Well, count CEOs among those anxious about an impending recession in 2019.

According to a new survey, released by PwC ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, chief executives’ pessimism about economic growth climbed significantly in 2018, with nearly 30 percent of CEOs saying they’re expecting a decline in global economic growth over the next year -- up from just 5 percent in 2017.

Although 42 percent still said they expect global growth to improve in 2019, the percentage of executives who said they foresee a decline in growth is one of the largest surges ever record by PwC.

“Given the level of uncertainty surrounding trade and policy issues, it is not surprising that CEOs are hunkering down at home,” the study said.

And when it comes to global growth, CEOs have a track record of being right. According to the study, CEO survey responses over the past decade reveal a “strong correlation” between their expectations for their businesses’ growth and actual global GDP growth.

“In other words,” the study said, “CEOs revenue confidence can be considered a leading indicator of the direction of the global economy.”

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX BUSINESS APP

It could also be evidence of a large trend among CEOs. A survey published by Conference Board on Thursday revealed that CEOs view a recession as their biggest external concern for 2019. Comparatively, last year CEOs considered the threat of a recession an afterthought, ranking it as their 19th most vital concern.