New GDP numbers may show slower growth as trade war tensions mount
GOP strategist Holly Turner and Democratic strategist Brad Gerstman react to a recent Quinnipiac poll showing 37 percent of voters think the economy is getting worse.
The U.S. economy may have grown a bit more slowly in the three months through June than previously estimated, according to a survey of economists.
The second-quarter pace was likely just 2 percent, according to the assessment from Refinitiv. The Commerce Department's updated report on the period will cross the wires at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.
Last month, the agency's advance estimate found the economy grew 2.1 percent, down from 3.1 percent at the start of the year.
“The U.S. economy continues to show its resilience while also showing signs of softening,” National Association of Manufacturers Chief Economist Chad Moutray said following the report. “While manufacturing data have been weaker in the first half of the year than we might desire, recent data point to signs of a possible rebound moving forward, and the labor market remains solid. The global economy, however, is generating headwinds that impact this outlook.”
Less than a week after the report, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis, citing the “implications of global developments in the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures."
One thing that won't impact Thursday's report is the recent escalation of the trade war, which occurred after the quarter ended but is likely to affect the rest of the year. Earlier this month, the U.S. and China hit each other's goods with new tariffs and raised existing ones, sparking new concerns for global growth.
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"Delayed prospects for a trade agreement between the United States and China remain central to our projections for economic growth and financial market performance in the coming months and quarters," said John Lynch, chief investment strategist at Boston-based LPL Financial. He lowered his GDP forecast for 2019 to 2 percent from a range of 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent.