Heartland 'not in good shape' due to trade war, Gartman CIO says
The Heartland of America will be all ears when trade talks between the United States and China resume in October.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told FOX Business the Oct.10-11 timeframe was roughly the target for the 13th round of talks to start again.
On Tuesday, The Gartman Letter Editor and CIO Dennis Gartman told FOX Business' Liz MacDonald on "The Evening Edit" he's hopeful they can get a deal, but it's been hurting the American farmer.
"Clearly, the farm community is being devastated."
Both sides have made conciliatory gestures ahead of the next round of talks, but a deal remains elusive.
The U.S. postponed a further tariff hike on Chinese goods, and China lifted punitive duties on soybeans. The move helps both American farmers and Chinese pig breeders, who use soy as feed and are struggling with a devastating outbreak of African swine fever.
"My fear is that nothing will happen," Gartman said. "They'll wait until the election next year, and that will certainly be detrimental to stock prices and that will certainly be detrimental to the economy."
However, Heritage Foundation's Joel Griffith said he thinks the likelihood of President Trump accomplishing a trade deal with China is higher than that.
"The fact is a lot of the arrangements in China can be worked out on the executive level with our administration, without [Congressional] approval because a lot of skirmish that we've seen so far has been executive action, so I'm optimistic we'll get this through," Griffith said.
Griffith said he believes Trump is starting to see how the ongoing trade war has slowed down the economy, but he insists it's impacted China more than America.
"I think both parties are motivated to get an agreement through in the next several months," Griffith said.
GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE
But staring in the face of $9 soybeans, $5 wheat, $3.50 corn and $0.60 cotton, Gartman says those "are not prices that are amenable to a beneficial vote for the Republicans."
With Deere and General Motors laying off workers, Gartman is worried these are foreboding signs.
"The Heartland is where the votes will be cast. The Heartland is where the election will be won or lost, and right now, the Heartland is not in good shape."
The Trump administration first imposed tariffs on Chinese imports in 2018 in a bid to win concessions from China, which responded with tit-for-tat tariffs. The escalating dispute between the world's two largest economies has depressed stock prices and poses a threat to the global economy.
FOX Business' Ken Martin and The Associated Press contributed to this article.