Housing starts rise more than expected in July despite high mortgage rates
Housing starts tick higher in July, reversing earlier declines
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New U.S. home construction ticked higher in June after declining the previous month, even as the housing market continues to confront headwinds like higher mortgage rates.
Housing starts rose 3.9% last month to an annual rate of 1.45 million units, according to new Commerce Department data released Wednesday. That is slightly above Refinitiv economists' forecast for a pace of 1.44 million units.
Applications to build – which measures future construction – also inched higher, climbing 0.1% over the course of the month to an annualized rate of 1.44 million units. Compared with the same time last year, building permits are down about 13%.
"The latest numbers suggest that loosening up an extremely tight housing market is no mean feat, even with mortgage rates at their highest levels in more than two decades," said Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office. "Like the jobs market, housing has continued to exhibit the inflation ‘stickiness’ the Fed has been trying to combat. And as the Fed itself has tried to remind the markets, it’s going to be a long fight."
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Homes under construction in Sacramento, California, on July 3, 2023. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
The data comes one day after the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures the pulse of the single-family housing market, unexpectedly plunged six points to 50, a three-month low. Any reading below 50 is negative.
Prior to this month, sentiment among builders had been steadily rising as a worsening inventory shortage – driven by sellers reluctant to give up their low mortgage rates locked in before the pandemic – pushed would-be buyers to seek out new construction instead.
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However, the latest data suggests a recent spike in mortgage rates is weighing on that demand.
Homes in Rocklin, California, on Dec. 6, 2022. ( Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
"Rising mortgage rates and high construction costs stemming from a dearth of construction workers, a lack of buildable lots and ongoing shortages of distribution transformers put a chill on builder sentiment in August," said Alicia Huey, NAHB chair and a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Alabama.
The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest-rate hike campaign sent mortgage rates soaring above 7% last year, quickly cooling the once red-hot housing market. However, rates have been slow to retreat from the nearly two-decade high, forcing many potential buyers out of the market.
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Rates on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage are currently hovering around 6.96%, according to Freddie Mac, well above the 5.51% rate recorded one year ago and the pre-pandemic average of 3.9%. That is the highest level since November 2022.