Job growth surges in Trump-supporting counties, study shows
FBN's Edward Lawrence breaks down the April jobs report.
During the first 21 months of President Trump’s term, the parts of the country that supported him are adding jobs at a faster pace than the urban areas that tend to favor Democrats – bucking a years-long trend.
A new analysis from the Brookings Institution found that counties that voted for Trump in the 2016 election are “adding jobs a little faster than are counties that voted for Hillary Clinton.” The report also noted that employment growth in those same Trump counties is significantly faster than what was experienced during President Barack Obama’s tenure in the White House.
From 2010 to 2017, job growth in the counties that voted for Clinton outpaced those that favored Trump, at rates of 1.7 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. However, the trend shifted between January 2017 and September 2018, where job creation in Trump counties overtook those that voted for Clinton, jumping to 2.6 percent.
In total, there are 2,622 counties that voted for Trump and 490 that voted for Clinton.
The headline numbers could be especially potent in the run-up to the 2020 election, following Trump’s promises to bring back jobs to Middle America. The U.S. economy also grew at a surprisingly strong rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter, while unemployment remains at the lowest level in decades.
Sectors that had been contracting, like mining, saw a growth rate of 3.1 percent between Jan. 2017 and Jan. 2019. Construction, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing also experienced growth.
However, despite Trump’s focus on bolstering the U.S. manufacturing sector – industries that tended to be relied on by his more rural-residing voter base – Brookings said the changes are more likely cyclical and not linked to any specific policies.
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“These industries bore the brunt of the recent Great Recession, and are at last moving beyond the downturn and catching up somewhat,” researchers concluded.
However, it should be noted that output per worker in Clinton counties is 30 percent higher, meaning these counties are still generating a significant amount of economic value.