July inflation report likely to show prices climbed for the first time in a year

A high-stakes inflation report due Thursday is expected to show that price pressures within the economy heated up in July for the first time in more than a year.

Economists expect the consumer price index, which measures a range of goods that includes gasoline, health care, groceries and rent, to show that monthly prices rose 3.3% in July, above the 3% increase recorded the previous month. It would mark the first annual increase in consumer prices since June 2022, when the gauge peaked at a rate 9.1%.

"It’s going to go up. I think everyone is pretty much agreed on that," Robert Frick, corporate economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union, told FOX Business. "The problem is it’s going to stay up for a while, maybe through this year and into next year."

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On a monthly basis, inflation is projected to have climbed 0.2%, the same as June. 

There is a "broad spectrum" of items and services keeping inflation uncomfortably high, including housing and rent, medical and auto insurance, gasoline and certain grocery items, according to Frick. 

"It's going to be hard to bring down," he said. "I just want to underscore that lower-income Americans are really feeling a lot of pressure right now. We cannot think that just because inflation has stalled out that things are better."

The Federal Reserve is closely watching the report for evidence inflation is finally subsiding as policymakers try to cool the economy with a series of aggressive interest-rate hikes. Officials approved 11 rate increases in the span of just 16 months, lifting the benchmark federal funds rate from near-zero to the highest level since 2001.

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Parts of the report are expected to point to a slow retreat for inflation, a worrisome sign for the U.S. central bank. Core prices, which exclude the more volatile measurements of food and energy, are expected to climb 0.2%, or 4.7% annually, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain strong. The Fed's target inflation rate is 2%. 

"The Fed’s decision-making is likely to get much more complicated with the release of tomorrow’s July inflation report, which is expected to show that the overall rate of inflation ticked up slightly last month," said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. 

Central bank officials are also taking into consideration other economic indicators, including job growth and consumer inflation expectations.

The July jobs report offered a mixed picture of the economy. Employers added 187,000 jobs last month, fewer than expected, but the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% and wage growth came in stronger than expected.

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Still, a majority of investors anticipate the Fed will hold rates steady during its Sept. 19-20 meeting. 

The probability of another rate hike is just 13.5%, according to data from the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which tracks trading.