Pending home sales fall to record low as high mortgage rates take a toll
Pending home sales drop in October to new record low
There is 'optimism on the horizon' for the housing market, expert says
NAHB CEO Jim Tobin discusses the state of the housing market, American homeownership and using family money for home down payment.
Signed contracts to buy previously owned homes in the U.S. fell last month to the lowest level on record as a spike in mortgage rates locked many would-be buyers out of the market.
The National Association of Realtors said Thursday that its pending home sales index decreased 1.5% in October to the lowest reading since the gauge was established in 2001. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv had expected contracts to decline by 2%.
"During October, mortgage rates were at their highest, and contract signings for existing homes were at their lowest in more than 20 years," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. "Recent weeks' successive declines in mortgage rates will help qualify more home buyers, but limited housing inventory is significantly preventing housing demand from fully being satisfied."
Pending sales remain down 8.5% from the same time last year.
MORTGAGE CALCULATOR: SEE HOW MUCH HIGHER RATES COULD COST YOU
A sign outside a home for sale in Atlanta, Georgia on September 6, 2023. (Photographer: Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
The report suggests that the housing market still has a long way to go before it recovers from the deep freeze that it entered as a result of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate hike campaign.
"Given that inventory levels remain low, and the real estate market generally slows heading into the holidays, pending home sales might not bounce right back from this low point," said Kate Wood, a home and mortgage expert at NerdWallet.
HOME FORECLOSURES ARE ON THE UPSWING NATIONWIDE
Borrowing costs have retreated noticeably over the course of November, as many investors believe the Fed is done hiking interest rates following two cooler-than-expected inflation reports last week.
Homes in Hercules, California, on Wednesday, August 16, 2023. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
Rates on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage fell to a two-month low of 7.44% last week, according to Freddie Mac, down from a high of 7.79% at the end of October.
Still, rates remain well above the pre-pandemic average of 3.9%.
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The astronomic rise in mortgage rates over the past year is not only dampening consumer demand but is also limiting inventory. That is because sellers who locked in a low mortgage rate before the pandemic have been reluctant to sell with rates continuing to hover near a two-decade high, leaving few options for eager would-be buyers.
A recent report from Realtor.com shows that the total number of homes for sale, including those that were under contract but not yet sold, fell by 4% in September, compared with the same time a year ago.
Available home supply remains down a stunning 45.1% from the typical amount before the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020, according to the report.