A recession is ‘absolutely’ on the horizon, expert warns

During an interview on "Mornings with Maria," Wednesday, Piper Sandler chief investment strategist Michael Kantrowitz provided expert analysis of the U.S. markets and economy, warning investors that economic growth and unemployment rates will soon become our new crisis.

MICHAEL KANTROWITZ: I don't think we're in a recession. I know obviously Q1 was a real ugly GDP report, but the details matter and that was largely a big hit to trade. If you look at private domestic GDP, consumer spending was strong in Q1. But yeah, we're heading in that direction. Absolutely. 100%. You look at leading indicators of the economy, the Empire Fed Index, the Philly Fed Index, the Dallas PMI, the Kansas City PMI, they're all in negative territory now for the first time in this slowdown. And so everything's pointing in that direction when you start to see an unemployment claims sharply rise. And we're just beginning to see layoffs from mostly tech companies, just beginning as that broadens out, then that's really the signposts of recession. 

I think we're going have a lot of volatility. The debate around inflation's not going to end this year. And so, yes, we'll eventually see a peak in CPI and a decline. It's not going to be fast enough to make the Fed pivot. I think it's actually more likely the Fed ends up pausing because we have a job market problem next year. Then inflation goes away, and the Fed just thinks everything's fine. 

GDP CONTRACTION DEEPENS GIVING FRESH RECESSION CLUES AMID SOARING INFLATION

WATCH THE FULL INTERVIEW HERE: