US recession on the horizon? When experts think it could hit
The U.S. economy is in the throes of the longest expansion on record, but not everyone is optimistic it will continue too much longer.
According to experts surveyed by online real estate site Zillow, half of real estate experts and economists expected a recession would occur in 2020.
The highest proportion of respondents thought the slowdown was likely to hit in the third quarter of 2020.
Respondents thought trade policy was most likely to end the economic expansion, followed by a geopolitical crisis or a stock market correction.
Not too many people thought weakness in the housing market would trigger the next recession, but they did expect demand in the housing market would be negatively affected.
More than half of experts surveyed thought home buying demand in 2020 would be somewhat or significantly lower than this year.
On Thursday, Freddie Mac reported that mortgage rates hit a nearly three-year low, as the 30-year fixed rate dropped to 3.75 percent.
However, despite low rates and a strong U.S. economy, buyers have been relatively reluctant to get in on the housing market.
U.S. home sales picked up slightly in June, according to data from the Commerce Department, to a seasonally adjusted rate of 646,000.
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June’s increase comes on the heels of two months of declines. Sales in May and April were also revised down on Wednesday.
The median price of a home was about $310,400 – which is about the same as last year.