What to expect from the April jobs report
The U.S. economy is expected to have added 185,000 jobs in April, a steady but relatively unremarkable number as economists look for signs of stalled growth.
The Department of Labor will release its payroll and unemployment data early Friday morning, offering a glimpse into the overall health of the U.S. economy and labor market.
Economists surveyed by Refinitiv expect the unemployment rate will remain steady at 3.8 percent for the third straight month. Investors, however, will be watching wage growth for signs of inflation, which has considerably decelerated.
They expect average hourly earnings will grow 3.3 percent compared to last year, up slightly from 3.2 percent in March but narrowly missing February’s growth of 3.4 percent which was the highest in nearly 10 years. Stronger gains reflect a tightening labor market and a shrinking pool of workers, which makes it more difficult for employers to find qualified workers.
U.S. private sector hiring expanded by 275,000 jobs in April, according to the ADP National Employment report, surging past analyst expectations of 180,000 jobs. However, Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, tempered the number, warning that it overstated the economy’s strength.
The April jobs report also comes on the heels of last week’s better-than-expected GDP, which rose at a 3.2 percent annualized rate, beating most analysts’ expectations of 2.5 percent and cooling some fears about an impending economic recession.
“The first-quarter GDP numbers were unexpectedly strong, and this should continue to support job creation, particularly in the services sector,” said Cailin Birch, a global economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “However, the strong headline growth number masked signs of slowing economic momentum in the first quarter--including slowing domestic demand growth and a sharp drop in imports.”