Expert warns developing home heating oil shortage is around the corner as gas prices fall

GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan warns the problem will not go away anytime soon

Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis, said gas prices could soon fall to their lowest point since the Russian invasion of Ukraine — casting a hopeful glimmer that, for those living in heating oil states, could soon be dimmed.

The national average for a gallon of gas slipped to $3.79, down from last week's average of $3.88 per gallon, and while some speculate falling demands could be to blame, De Haan told "Varney & Co." viewers what could actually be the culprit.

"A lot of what we're seeing with the national average is actually coming as refineries on the West Coast have really repaired their issues that had caused prices to jump significantly in September, so it's really the West Coast and the Great Lakes where those refinery issues have been resolved," De Haan said on Monday.

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He predicted the national average could fall even further in the upcoming days, hitting a low since the dawn of the Russia-Ukraine war.

"I suspect that, maybe in the next week or so, the national average will actually fall to the lowest point since Russia's invasion of Ukraine," De Haan told host Stuart Varney.

"Of course, it's that invasion that's keeping prices well above where they were last year," he added.

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But other energy concerns are taking place elsewhere, including a developing home heating oil shortage in the Northeastern U.S., which could generate problems going into the chilly winter months if the issue manifests into something much worse.

"Heating oil and also diesel fuel in the Northeast has been the extreme challenge this year, and, of course, we're coming into home heating oil season and a lot of folks are filling their tanks with heating oil," De Haan said.

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"A lot can be said about this developing crisis, and really it's a culprit of declining refining output that's no longer able to really replenish those inventories specifically in the Northeast where you've lost about a half a million barrels of refining capacity since COVID and since 2019."

De Haan warned Varney that the developing home heating oil shortage is a problem that will not go away anytime soon and said viewers can expect to hear "a lot more" about refineries that are struggling to keep up with rising demand this winter.

His message grew even more dismal for homeowners looking to stay warm this winter, saying shortage problems could exacerbate already climbing costs.

"Inventories of heating oil in the Northeast are extremely low," he warned. "There is the Northeast heating oil reserve that may have to be tapped later this year if there are extreme cold spells to make up for the gap."

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