Projected, actual enrollment for Medicaid expansion states

This table contains projected and actual enrollment figures for the newly eligible Medicaid population in the 30 states and the District of Columbia that have opted to expand the program under the federal Affordable Care Act. Where available, it also provides the estimated and revised cost of paying for the program during the 2017 fiscal year, when states will begin paying a share of the Medicaid expansion. The state share will rise to 10 percent in the 2020 fiscal year.

Associated Press reporters in every state compiled the information from various state agencies (FY=fiscal year; CY=calendar year).

MEDICAID EXPANSION STATE	NEWLY ELIGIBLE PROJECTED ENROLLMENT	NEWLY ELIGIBLE ACTUAL ENROLLMENT	NEWLY ELIGIBLE STATE COST ESTIMATE FY2017 (ORIGINAL)	NEWLY ELIGIBLE STATE COST ESTIMATE FY2017 (REVISED)	ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Alaska	FY2016:40,000 eligible; 20,000 would enroll	N/A	$5.2 million	N/A	Gov. Bill Walker said last week that Alaska would expand Medicaid.
Arizona	FY2015: 279,778	FY2015: 347,000	$163.4 million	$234.8 million	Arizona had partially expanded Medicaid prior to ACA implementation, although that program was put on hold during the recession. These figures include the initial expansion group and newly eligible population. Most of the growth is concentrated in the initial expansion group, which restarted in 2014.
Arkansas	All years: 250,000 new enrollees	FY2014: 195,783 new enrollees	$107.8 million for new enrollees	$43 million for new enrollees	Arkansas' Medicaid expansion operates differently than in most states. Under what it calls a "private option," the state uses federal money to buy private insurance for low-income residents. It was crafted as an alternative to the Medicaid expansion envisioned under the federal health law. The figures here include the newly eligible and those previously eligible but not enrolled.
California	FY2015: 800,257	As of May 2015: 2.3 million	Up to $257 million	$367.4 million	The Legislature will meet in a special session later this summer, in part to discuss funding for the program, which is called Medi-Cal. Five years ago, the program accounted for 14 percent of California's general fund. Today, Medi-Cal consumes 16 percent.
Colorado	FY2015:232,400	FY2015:312,682	Not available	$38.2 million	Under a plan passed by lawmakers, a hospital provider fee will be used to cover state costs in the 2017 fiscal year. Officials said a comparable cost estimate was not available because expansion was implemented in stages.
Connecticut	Not available	April 2015:38,195 new enrollees	Not available	Not available	Connecticut officials said about 45,000 childless adults in 2010 were moved off a program that provided health coverage funded entirely by the state. Enrollment count is just for April and includes those previously eligible.
Delaware	CY2014: 71,645 new enrollees	CY2014: 52,431 new enrollees	$57 million (CY)	$56.5 million (CY)	Delaware was among states that had partially expanded Medicaid prior to ACA implementation. Figures include the initial expansion group and the newly eligible population.
District of Columbia	Not available	April 2015:11,932 new enrollees	Not available	Not available	The District of Columbia had previously expanded Medicaid. District officials say they do not do enrollment and cost projections. Enrollment count is just for April and includes those previously eligible.
Hawaii	Oct. 1, 2013-Oct, 1 2014: 45,000 new enrollees	Oct. 1, 2013-Oct, 1 2014: 18,188 new enrollees	Not provided	Not provided	Enrollment was lower than projected in the first year due partly to technical problems related to ACA implementation. The state department that handles Medicaid did not provide cost estimates.
Illinois	CY2015: 298,000	FY2015: 623,000	$98.8 million	$54.1 million (plus an additional $18.8 million paid by Cook County directly as part of an intergovernmental agreement).	The costs of the newly eligible population in Cook County, which includes Chicago, were included in the initial cost estimate but not in the current one. Cook County is included in the enrollment numbers.
Indiana	CY2015: 247,000	As of July 14, 2015: 186,000	Not available	Not available	Indiana obtained a federal waiver to expand its Healthy Indiana Plan as an alternative to Medicaid expansion. State costs for the overall program are expected to reach $185 million in FY2017.
Iowa	All years: 150,000	FY2015: 133,056	Not provided	$24 million	Iowa obtained a federal waiver to create its Iowa Health and Wellness Plan as an alternative to Medicaid expansion.
Kentucky	FY2014: 147,634	FY2014: 310,887	$33 million	$74 million
Maryland	FY2015: 164,724	FY2015: 220,442	$30.9 million	$53.6 million	Maryland officials said about 100,000 residents were moved off a program that previously provided limited health coverage funded entirely by the state.
Massachusetts	Not available	Not available	Not available	Not available	Massachusetts had previously expanded Medicaid. Efforts to identify enrollment and cost projections were unsuccessful.
Michigan	CY2014: 323,000	CY2014: 506,000	$100 million	$150 million
Minnesota	FY2014:105,367 monthly average eligibles	FY2014:121,353 monthly average eligibles	$42.3 million	$57.96 million	Minnesota officials said residents were moved off a program that previously provided health care for childless adults paid for with a mix of state and federal money.
Montana	All years: 70,000 to 80,000 eligible; 45,000 would enroll over next four years	N/A	$5.1 million	N/A	The Montana Legislature decided this year to expand its Medicaid program, but its waiver is still pending federal approval.
Nevada	May 2015: 144,340	May 2015: 181,051	$8.5 million	$22.6 million
New Hampshire	FY2015: 34,000 new enrollees	FY2015: 41,018 new enrollees	$9 million for new enrollees	$12 million for new enrollees	Figures include the newly eligible and those previously eligible but not enrolled.
New Jersey	All years: 234,000	As of May 2015: 382,746	Not provided	$162 million	Efforts to identify an initial cost projection were unsuccessful.
New Mexico	CY2014: 133,386	CY2014: 191,133	$35.5 million	$43.3 million
New York	As of June 2015: 78,953	CY2014: 144,058	$15.7 million	Not available	New York was among states that had partially expanded Medicaid before the ACA implementation. It only had to raise the income threshold for childless adults. State officials say they have yet to do an update on costs.
North Dakota	All years: 20,500	CY2014: 16,727	$2.9 million	$8.2 million	State officials say actual costs proved higher than projections.
Ohio	June 2015: 366,000	As of May 2015: 537,010	$55.5 million	$130 million
Oregon	FY2015: 222,700	FY2015: 386,000	$45 million	$63 million
Pennsylvania	All years: 600,000	As of July 17, 2015: About 423,000	Not available	Not available	Pennsylvania's expansion began Jan. 1 of this year. Efforts to identify cost projections were unsuccessful.
Rhode Island	First year of expansion: 51,000	CY2014: 55,684	$13.6 million	$12.4 million
Vermont	FY2014: 34,490 average monthly eligibles	FY2014: 47,315 average	monthly eligibles	Not available	Not available	Vermont had previously expanded Medicaid, so these figures represent people who were previously eligible under the state plan. Officials say state costs will be greatly reduced as the federal government pays a larger share compared to the state plan in effect before the Affordable Care Act.
Washington	CY2014: 244,667	CY2014: 510,691	$78.4 million	$76.5 million	State officials attributed the difference between estimated and current costs to "minor adjustments" and not a significant revision. It was not immediately clear why costs declined slightly from projections even though enrollment was more than double the estimate.
West Virginia	FY2015: 78,500	FY2015: 159,000	$18.5 million	Under revision	State officials say actual costs are expected to meet projections due to lower-than-expected individual costs.