Retail sales to surge this holiday season
U.S. holiday sales are expected to grow 3.8 percent to 4.2 percent in November and December -- to a total of between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion, the National Retail Federation said Thursday.
“The U.S. economy is continuing to grow and consumer spending is still the primary engine behind that growth,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a press release.
“Nonetheless, there has clearly been a slowdown brought on by considerable uncertainty around issues including trade, interest rates, global risk factors and political rhetoric. Consumers are in good financial shape and retailers expect a strong holiday season. However, confidence could be eroded by continued deterioration of these and other variables.”
The forecast comes as some holiday merchandise, including apparel, footwear and television, were hit with new tariffs beginning on Sept. 1. Other products will be subject to the tariffs beginning Dec. 15.
“There are probably very few precedents for this uncertain macroeconomic environment,” NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said.
“There are many moving parts and lots of distractions that make predictions difficult. There is significant economic unease, but current economic data and the recent momentum of the economy show that we can expect a much stronger holiday season than last year."
While holiday sales have averaged growth of 3.7 percent over the previous five years, 2018 sales 2.1 percent from the prior year to $701.2 billion, as a government shutdown, stock market volatility, and tariffs weighed on consumer sentiment.
The NRF’s upbeat forecast follows several other optimistic outlooks for the holiday season.
On Wednesday, Salesforce said it expects online holiday sales to hit a record $136 billion this year, a 13 percent increase from 2018.
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That followed a survey conducted last month by the consultancy firm Deloitte, which found retail sales will surge between 4.5 percent and 5 percent during the November to January period, allowing retailers to rake in $1.1 trillion in sales during the holiday season.