What are the odds of Biden dropping out? Here's what the betting markets say
Betting markets have been on a roller-coaster ride in recent weeks over speculation that Biden might not be able to stay in the presidential race
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A defiant President Biden insists he will be the Democratic Party's nominee in 2024 despite growing calls for him to bow out, and the betting markets have been on a roller-coaster ride over the odds ever since the 81-year-old's disastrous debate against former President Trump two weeks ago.
Leading up to the debate on June 27, traders on Polymarket – the world's largest prediction market with roughly 80% of market share globally – bet there was approximately a 1 in 4 chance of Biden dropping out. That shot up to a 43% chance the next day and surged to a 75% chance on July 3 as the news cycle showed pressure rising for the former president to pass the baton.
President Biden waves from Air Force One as he prepares to leave Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, on July 7, 2024. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
But those odds have steadily declined ever since as Biden has repeatedly said he isn't going anywhere. Polymarket traders determined that as of Monday afternoon, there was a 45% chance of Biden stepping aside after earlier in the day he sent a letter to congressional Democrats saying he was "firmly committed to staying in the race."
Other sites have seen similar shifts.
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"The market currently prices President Biden in the lead for becoming the Democratic nominee, with a 14c bump just today," PredictIt public relations director Lindsey Singer told FOX Business in a statement Monday. "But these numbers follow days of considerable action and price shifting – including the addition of several new potential candidates."
President Biden and Vice President Harris stand on the Truman Balcony of the White House on July 4, 2024. (Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
PredictIt's traders gave Biden a 54% chance of becoming the Democratic Party's presidential nominee for 2024 as of the first of the week. Vice President Harris came in second on the site with a 31% chance, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 9%. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and former first lady Michelle Obama are both seen as having a 6% chance.
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Tim Williams, director of public relations for BetUS.com, said betting on whether Biden will be able to stay in the race is one of the more popular wagering options for the platform's political fans, and as of Monday, the odds were not in Biden's favor.
"The lion’s share of wagers are actually coming in on the ‘yes’ (he will withdraw from the race) option," Williams told FOX Business. "We’re talking about 80% of wagers give or take so far."
President Biden and former President Trump are shown during their debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Williams also confirmed that the election betting market on BetUS has seen "a serious shake-up in recent days" with Biden’s current +250 moneyline odds leaving an implied probability of just 28.57% that he will win a second term. Meanwhile, Trump’s -200 odds lead to an implied probability of 66.67% for him to win.
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Williams added that Harris has seen her odds tighten significantly to +500, or a 16.67% implied probability.
As of Monday, ElectionOdds.com – which includes the odds from Polymarket, PredictIt, Betfair and Smarkets – showed Trump with a 58.9% chance of winning the election this fall, while Biden had an 18.5% chance and Harris an 11.4% chance.