Stock market expert compares 2024 election to tumultuous time when the challenger prevailed over incumbent
CFRA Research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall drew parallels between the 1968 and 2024 election cycles
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CFRA Research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall discusses whether the stock market rally will accelerate if Trump wins the election on 'Making Money.'
Wall Street is becoming increasingly convinced former President Trump will emerge the victor from next week's long-anticipated election.
Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) shares continue to surge, making a comeback from a low in September, but what other signs point to that conclusion?
CFRA Research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall weighed in on Tuesday, telling FOX Business' Charles Payne the feel of this election cycle is abnormal, reminiscent of another tumultuous time when the challenger prevailed over the incumbent.
"It does [seem different this year], because we're up more than 5% since July 31st and, whenever the market has been higher in that three-month period — July 31 through Oct. 31 — the incumbent person or party has been re-elected 82% of the time," he surmised.
‘LOTS OF LEADERS ON WALL STREET’ PRIVATELY SUPPORTING TRUMP, TRANSITION TEAM CO-CHAIR SAYS
Former President Trump prepares to speak during the Conservative Political Action Conference at the Hilton Anatole in Dallas on July 11, 2021. (AP Images)
"One of those times in which it was not successful was 1968, and I have to say that this election sort of reminds me of '68 when LBJ stepped aside. Hubert Humphrey stepped in. The public was not happy with an unpopular war in Vietnam the way, today, questions are raised about inflation and immigration. We had a Chicago [Democratic] convention. We also had the Fed cut interest rates before the election, but it didn't seem to matter. The replacement ended up winning rather than the incumbent."
Other commentators during the highly contentious and erratic election season have drawn similar comparisons between the 1968 and 2024 races, each commonly grounded on President Biden's and LBJ's decisions to not seek re-election.
Bloomberg's MLIV pulse survey on the market outlook, meanwhile, indicates 38% of those surveyed believe a Trump victory would "accelerate" the current market rally, compared to 13% should Vice President Kamala Harris win.
Those surveyed in Bloomberg's MLIV Pulse survey believe the market would more likely accelerate its rally if former President Trump wins the election.
A larger majority believed the market would either stay the same, slow, or turn into losses if Harris wins, however.
With less than one week left until voters head to the polls to make their final decisions, Trump and Harris are deadlocked in the polls, with the winner expected to walk away with a razor-thin victory.
All eyes currently linger on a set of key swing states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona — assuming that the narrow victory for either candidate will boil down to these states.
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