Recession is expected in Q1 2023: Bank of America

A recession may be coming in the first quarter of 2023, according to forecasts by Bank of America (BofA) economists.

"A recession is very likely in the U.S.," BoFa wrote in its Year Ahead 2023 report. The bank points out that this recession can last through the third quarter of 2023.

There's no official definition of a recession, but many economists define it as a period of two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth or gross domestic product (GDP) decline – a drop that’s already been seen in 2022. 

Many Americans also believe the U.S. is already in a recession. More than half or 56% of Americans believe the country is in a recession, according to a recent poll by YouGovAmerica and The Economist. 

If you’re facing high-interest debt, you can consider paying it off with a personal loan at a lower rate. You can visit Credible to speak with a personal loan specialist to see if this option is right for you. 

HOUSING MARKET WILL LEAD US INTO A RECESSION, AND WILL LEAD US OUT: MBA FORECAST

Interest rates are expected to keep rising in 2023 

In addition to recession fears, Americans may be affected by rising interest rates in 2023. 

To battle high inflation, the Federal Reserve has increased interest rates six times so far in 2022. Most recently, the Fed increased the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for the fourth straight month in November. 

The interest rate bump pushed the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% or the highest rate since the 2008 global financial crisis. 

Even if smaller interest rate hikes are seen in 2023, any kind of increase to the federal funds rate may impact the interest rates for financial products such as credit cards. 

If you are struggling in the current economy, you could consider taking out a personal loan to pay down high-interest debt, such as credit cards, at a lower interest rate. You can visit Credible to compare multiple lenders at once without affecting your credit score.

FED SAYS INFLATION CONCERNS REMAIN, WILL CONTINUE RAISING RATES

Inflation can still be a challenge in 2023 

In the midst of a potential recession, Americans may not see an end to higher-than-usual prices on basic goods and services in 2023. In fact, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) believes inflation won't reach the target levels until 2024.

"We won’t be at the Fed’s inflation target until 2024," Mike Fratantoni, the MBA's chief economist and senior vice president, said at the Market Outlook session at the 2022 MBA Annual conference in Nashville. 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 7.7% year-over-year in October. This indicates a smaller increase from the 8.2% annual increase in September. However, the inflation rate remains close to the 9.1% 40-year high of earlier this year.

More than half of Americans or 78% believe inflation is a crisis, according to an October study by the real estate data company Clever.

If you’re struggling to manage your finances in today’s economy, consider paying off high-interest debt with a personal loan at a lower interest rate and potentially lower your monthly payments. You can visit Credible to compare personal loan rates from multiple lenders at once and find the rate that's right for you.

INFLATION TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH 2024, RECESSION ON ITS WAY: MBA FORECAST

Have a finance-related question, but don't know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at moneyexpert@credible.com and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.