Brexit's Plan B is a royal mess
Politics are playing out in the U.K. in dramatic fashion.
With just about nine weeks to go before Big Ben turns into a pumpkin, British lawmakers are once again gearing up for another day of dramatic appeals, desperate speeches and doomsday predictions in the venerable confines of the House of Commons.
On Tuesday, U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will try to sell her Brexit Plan B, that appears to be just a slightly tweaked version of her Plan A that suffered an historic and humiliating defeat. Let’s hope there’s more to it or we’ve just wasted another week and a half.
The big question is whether a majority of members of Parliament actually agree on one withdrawal plan that could also be palatable to their counterparts in Europe? To date they’ve failed miserably, some would say embarrassingly, and they’ve squandered two and a half years in the process.
There’s some hopeful belief that the March 29 deadline will help focus their minds and force opposing sides to take stock and compromise. Possibly, but in truth the British public is fed up with the spectacle. Brexit fatigue is very real. Taxi drivers, shopkeepers, people in the pub, you name it, all speak of their anger at the way U.K. leaders have bumbled and stumbled their way into a real mess.
For the pro-Brexit crowd that anger is starting to turn into indifference and a belief that they’ll actually not get what they voted for in 2016. For the anti-Brexit side the stalemate in Parliament shows Britain is just not prepared to leave the EU. They claim reality is replacing the fantasy of Brexit. It’s safe to say that in the end no one will be happy with the outcome, but we have to get there first.
It’s likely that Parliament will consider a number of amendments that could be attached to the prime minister’s proposal. One will try to take the chance of a no-deal scenario off the table, but Mrs. May has so far refused to do that, saying it’s actually the default option of the law and cannot be easily changed. It also provides the prime minister with a big bargaining chip, of which she has very few.
There will also be an amendment to the Irish backstop, probably calling for a time limit that will prevent the chance of Northern Ireland being trapped in the EU customs system. So far the EU has refused to change the terms.
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If it feels like we’re just going around and around and around … we are. Compromise will have to come from somewhere; red lines will have to be moved or that deadline will come and go. The economic forecasts for a no-deal outcome have bordered on catastrophic; food shortages, medicine shortages, U.K. ports hopelessly clogged, airlines grounded, numerous businesses unable to operate properly and ominously, troops on standby. Critics say it’s all fear mongering, but without an approved plan or a deadline extension, it’s where the U.K. is headed.
As the rhetoric heats up and the emotions rise, authorities are calling for calm. Police presence is being stepped up, lawmakers are getting better protection as they walk in and out of Parliament and authorities are keeping a closer eye on street protests. Even Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth, gave a speech recently that called on citizens to respect each other’s points of view and called for unity in the country.
It is undoubtedly a royal mess.