Home shopping data signals which states could be redder, bluer for 2024 election
New study analyses how population shifts over the past four years could reshape the political landscape
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Tens of millions of Americans move in any given year, and the migration trends of those that have resettled in another state since the past presidential election could spell political changes for 2024, even potentially impacting U.S. electoral outcomes.
In a new study, Realtor.com used data on geographical home shopping trends along with 2020 presidential election county-level results to assess how population moves among voters could potentially cause shifts, either red for Republicans or blue for Democrats, in different states this election cycle.
A U-Haul moving truck is seen in the parking lot of an apartment complex in the San Francisco Bay Area on Sept. 12, 2016. (Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images / Getty Images)
"As more individuals relocate between states, their political preferences could significantly influence election outcomes, especially in swing states where even minor shifts can be decisive," Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu told FOX Business.
"This trend illustrates the connection between migration and political preferences, as each new resident brings unique perspectives that can reshape the electoral landscape," Xu said. "Understanding these dynamics is crucial as we approach the upcoming election, revealing new narratives in American politics."
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The study found that four Democrat-dominated states — Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine — could become even bluer this time around, while seven blue states — California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Oregon and Washington — could trend redder.
A mover carries a television into an apartment building in the North Beach district of San Francisco on Dec. 28, 2023. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
A dozen red states, —namely Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming — were seen as becoming deeper red for 2024, according to the findings, while three red states — Alaska, Florida and Ohio — may shift bluer.
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When it comes to battleground states, the study determined three swing states — Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina — could trend redder, while two swing states, Wisconsin and Nevada, could shift bluer.
The remaining swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, were not found to have a clear directional shift red or blue for the local electorate, due to mixed population shifts, Realtor.com found.
"Vote Here" signs are seen at a polling station in East Lansing, Michigan, on Aug. 1. (Emily Elconin/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
In separate findings released Thursday, Realtor.com found that 38% of Americans agree that their political views align with the majority of the people where they live, and when asked to think about their most recent move, nearly twice as many (14%) said they moved to an area that was more aligned with their political views versus less aligned (8%), with the balance unsure or reporting no change in alignment.
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The survey conducted last month found that nearly 1 in 4 (23%) Americans say local and national politics highly influence their decision about where to live, especially for millennials, where that number jumps to 33%.
Out of the 2,200 voting-age adults polled, nearly 1 in 5 (17%) said they have considered moving because their political views don’t align with the majority of people in the area where they live.