Top JPMorgan strategist includes Biden dropping out among 2024 surprises
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Pundits on both sides of the political aisle have speculated for months over whether President Biden might bow out of the 2024 presidential race as he faces increased scrutiny over his age and struggling poll numbers. Now, a top analyst at the nation's largest bank suggests the possibility should not be ruled out.
Michael Cembalest, the chairman of market and investment strategy for JPMorgan Asset & Wealth Management, listed Biden dropping out of the race as one of his "10 predicted surprises" for this year in his 2024 "Pillow Talk" outlook.
US President Joe Biden speaks during an event marking the three-year anniversary of the January 6 riot at the US Capitol in Blue Bell, Pennsylvania, on Friday, Jan. 5, 2024. (Hannah Beier/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
Cembalest does not typically include a top ten list of surprises, but wrote that he did so this year "only" in a nod to late Morgan Stanley and Blackstone analyst Byron Wien, who used to write his own before passing away last year. Cembalest did not divulge how likely he thinks the predictions could be, but said "they were an exercise in thinking against the grain about what might happen in an industry dominated by consensus."
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The strategist wrote that Biden could withdraw from the race sometime between Super Tuesday on March 5 and the November election, and that the president would cite his health as the reason behind the move. Then, the Democratic National Committee would tap a nominee as Biden's replacement.
The JPMorgan Chase Tower on Park Avenue on midtown Manhattan. (Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images / Getty Images)
| Ticker | Security | Last | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. | 243.12 | +2.32 | +0.96% |
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
"Biden has a low approval rating for a President with ~10% job creation since his inauguration, although that figure is the by-product of his inauguration coinciding with the rollout of COVID vaccines and a reopening US economy," he wrote.
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This is not the first time Cembalest has floated the possibility of Biden exiting the 2024 race.
President Joe Biden and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (Getty Images)
The strategist pointed to a note he wrote in November, spelling out what would happen if either Biden or Trump, "two senior citizens," dropped out due to health reasons. In his hypothetical example, Cembalest used California Gov. Gavin Newsom as Biden's replacement to become the Democratic Party's nominee.
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The Biden-Harris campaign did not immediately respond to FOX Business' request for comment.