Most Americans expect AI abuses to impact 2024 election: survey

More than three-fourths of American adults believe that abuses involving the use of artificial intelligence (AI) systems will affect the outcome of the presidential election, according to a new survey.

The Elon University Poll and the Imagining the Digital Future Center at Elon University survey found that 73% believe AI will be used to manipulate social media to impact the election, such as by fake accounts generating information or distorting voters' impressions of the campaign.

Similarly, 70% said it's likely the election will be affected by the use of AI to generate fake information, as well as audio and video deepfakes. Over three-fifths, 62%, said the election is likely to be affected by the targeted use of AI to convince certain voters not to vote.

Overall, the Elon survey found that 78% of Americans expect that at least one of these types of AI abuses will impact the election, while over half think all three are at least somewhat likely to occur this election season.

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"Voters think this election will unfold in an extraordinarily challenging news and information environment," Lee Rainie, director of Elon University's Imagining the Digital Future Center, said in a statement. "They anticipate the new kinds of misinformation, faked material and voter-manipulation tactics are being enabled by AI. What's worse, many aren't sure they can sort through the garbage they know will be polluting campaign-related content."

An overwhelming 93% majority of Americans surveyed expressed the belief that political candidates who maliciously and intentionally alter or fake photos, videos or audio files should face punishment, with 46% saying they should be removed from office and 36% saying offenders should face criminal prosecution.

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By nearly an 8-to-1 margin, Americans expressed the sentiment that AI will have more of a negative impact on the election than a positive one – 39% said it will hurt while 5% think it will help, with 37% unsure.

The survey also found that Americans are concerned about the use and impact of AI systems adding to the confusion of the news and information environment because they lack confidence in their ability to detect faked audio, video and pictures – with 69% of those surveyed saying they aren't confident most voters can detect faked media.

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Over half of respondents, 52%, aren't confident in their own ability to detect altered or faked audio material, while 47% have those concerns about video and 45% about photos.

Less than a quarter of respondents, 23%, have used large language models or generative AI chatbots like ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude. 

Republican respondents were more likely to be skeptical of bias in AI systems, with 36% saying they're biased against Republicans compared to 15% of Democrats. Republicans were also more likely to think AI is biased against Democrats, with 23% thinking that compared to 14% of Democrats.

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The survey also found that 60% of Americans surveyed said they're confident votes will be accurately cast and counted – though there was a partisan divide among respondents.

While 83% of Democrats expressed such confidence, 60% of Republicans said they were not confident votes will be accurately cast and counted.