With a split government, should Americans expect higher taxes?
Slim majorities – Republicans in the House and Dems in the Senate – make major tax legislation unlikely
The 2022 midterm elections split control of Congress, with Republicans winning a majority in the House and Democrats holding the Senate. Now, many Americans wonder how this new government will affect their bottom line regarding taxes.
Previously, many lawmakers expected the Nov. 8 elections to deliver a "red wave" that would flip the House and Senate. A total Republican victory would have crippled President Joe Biden's legislative agenda for the next two years, especially as his approval ratings remain low.
Prior to the election, leading House Republican members, including Kevin McCarthy, vowed to open investigations into Hunter Biden's business dealings, examine the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, and subpoena officials in charge of Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan. These actions may still occur; however, Republicans now take office with a fragile majority and little or no mandate.
Biden indicated that he expects Republicans to work with his administration over key issues after Democrats remained in control of at least one chamber of Congress, telling the press, "The American people have made clear, I think, that they expect Republicans to be prepared to work with me as well."
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A centerpiece of Biden's agenda and one of his core campaign promises was to expand social programs and raise taxes on wealthy Americans and businesses. But campaign promises can sometimes be hard to keep. The president has already faced problems in trying to fulfill another promise, for student debt forgiveness, with judicial challenges in several Republican-led states.
Some Republicans, on the other hand, have called for changes to entitlement and safety net programs, including Medicare, and expanding former President Trump's 2017 tax cuts, whose benefits are set to expire by 2025.
Biden has already stated he would use his veto power to strike down such legislation. Moreover, Republicans in the House won't have a veto-proof majority or be able to find enough support across the aisle in the Senate from Democrats.
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The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, passed by a Republican congressional majority and signed by Trump in 2017, cut corporate, estate and individual tax rates. The legislation was one of the most significant laws passed in the Trump era and required a full Republican majority to see it passed.
It seems unlikely that either Democrats or Republicans will be able to push through legislation that will raise or cut federal taxes in the upcoming 118th Congress, given the slim majorities in both chambers and their partisan positions.