Trump takes commanding lead over Harris across betting markets
While polls show a tight presidential race, prediction markets see a clear odds-on favorite
Trump has the ‘momentum’ with three weeks until Election Day: Karoline Leavitt
Trump 2024 national press secretary Karoline Leavitt comments on the former President’s campaign strategy in the final weeks before Election Day.
While polls show former President Trump and Vice President Harris are in a dead heat in the final stretch of the 2024 race for the White House, the GOP nominee is dominating over the Democratic candidate in the betting markets.
After favoring Harris for two straight months, traders on PredictIt have now flipped for Trump, joining the host of betting markets that show the former president is the odds-on favorite to win the election.
Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures while walking onstage for a campaign rally on October 12, 2024 in Coachella, California. (Mario Tama/Getty Images / Getty Images)
As of Monday afternoon, Trump was favored over Harris, 54% to 49% on PredictIt, and the shift that occurred last week is also the first time Harris has dipped below 50% on the platform since late July.
"With three weeks left in the campaign, and polling showing things remain essentially tied, I don’t think these are the last flips we will see in the market," PredictIt spokesperson Lindsey Singer told FOX Business.
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On crypto-based prediction market PolyMarket, traders have seen Trump as more competitive over the past few months and showed the two candidates in a dead heat at the start of October, but Trump has since pulled away with a lead. As of Monday, PolyMarket bettors gave Trump a 55% chance of winning, and only a 45% chance for Harris.
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are shown on screen in the spin room during the second presidential debate at the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, US, on Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024. (Hannah Beier/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
Trump is also projected to win according to every prediction market tracked by RealClearPolitics. RCP betting odds data collectively gives the former president a 54.1% chance of winning the election, compared to Harris' 44.9%.
The numbers on Monday showed Trump favored 52% to Harris' 43% on Betfair, and 53% to 44% on Smarkets. Betsson, Bavada and Bwin showed odds of Trump winning at 56%, 54%, and 55%, respectively, and all three platforms gave Harris a 46% chance. Points Bet put Trump as having 57% odds of winning, to Harris' 45%.
TRIO OF NEW POLLS AGREE ON WHERE TRUMP AND HARRIS STAND WITH 3 WEEKS TO GO UNTIL ELECTION DAY
Recent polls indicate the race is tighter than the betting markets currently show, but also signal momentum behind Trump after the former president erased Harris' previous lead in the latest NBC News poll.
US Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event in Flint, Michigan, US, on Friday, Oct. 4, 2024. Bruce Springsteen has thrown his support behind Kamala Harris' bid for the White House as her campaign struggles to secure votes from Whit (Photographer: Sarah Rice/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
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The survey conducted Oct. 4-8 found Trump and Harris in a dead heat, with Trump and Harris each earning 48% from voters in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup. In the outlet's previous poll in September, voters favored Harris over Trump, 49% to 44%.