Yellen’s South Africa visit: ‘Not especially warm welcome’

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa – Africa has become the superpowers’ flavor of the month, as senior politicians from the U.S., China and Russia have been leaving crisscrossing jet vapor trails across the continent, with Washington, Moscow and Beijing trying to curry favor, and conjure up business deals, with African leaders.

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang has just finished a week-long tour of African nations. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov landed in South Africa on Monday, and diplomatic airport officials have to do a quick turnaround, as on Jan 24 U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen comes to town.

The welcome mat for Yellen is of a complex construction. South Africa’s foreign minister recently described both Russia and China as "very good friends." South Africa is proud of its political and trade links with Russia and China as a member of the BRICS group of nations: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Secretary Yellen will see South African smiles at the airport, but they are not going to be as wide as for the men from Moscow.

YELLEN PUSHES COMPETITION, NOT CONFLICT WITH CHINA, IN HER FIRST IN-PERSON MEETING WITH COUNTERPART

"Secretary Yellen’s trip will be professionally welcomed, if not especially warmly," Bhaso Ndzendze, head of department and associate professor in the Department of Politics and International Relations at the University of Johannesburg, told FOX Business. He cautioned that the ties between South Africa and the three superpowers are complicated: ‘Pretoria’s relationship with Russia is political and quite ambivalent, whereas with China it is close but mainly economic.’

Ndzendze continued: "South Africa’s commercial ties are still strong with the U.S., as evidenced by the fact that the U.S. is currently the second-largest buyer of South African goods. (China is the first.) Unlike with China also, South Africa has a substantial surplus in its trade with the U.S.."

Over 600 US companies are currently operating in South Africa, J. Brooks Spector, former U.S. diplomat and academic and now associate editor of South Africa’s Daily Maverick, told FOX Business in Johannesburg. "Secretary Yellen will get a polite hearing," he said.

"The Russian challenge largely comes in the diplomatic and security spheres,"Spector added, "and is aimed at bolstering Russia’s geopolitical position. The much more impactful Chinese effort is largely focused on economic and trade efforts, even as it is simultaneously designed to demonstrate that China is a reliable international partner."

"Still, the vast majority of Chinese imports from Africa are low value-added raw materials, while its exports to the continent are largely finished goods," he said.

Touching down for this African business safari, first in Senegal last Friday before a one-day stopover in Zambia, Yellen went straight for the moral high ground, trying to differentiate the U.S. position on Africa from that of China and Russia.

"Our engagement is not transactional, it's not for show, and it's not for the short term," she told an audience in Dakar, adding that Washington wants "to modernize our relationship by focusing on what we can do together, rather than what we can do for each other."

In South Africa, Spector sees a major change in U.S. trade policy since the recent U.S. Africa Summit in Washington, observing "the notion of the relationship as a conscious partnership – especially in terms of nurturing the growth in trade and investment."

But will Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s official visit make bigger – and warmer – waves in South Africa? "Minister Lavrov’s trip will be politicized as well, given the ongoing war in Ukraine," Ndzendze advised, "but  opposition parties won’t have an impact on the cordial reception that Lavrov will receive.’

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM HAS 'COLLAPSED' GLOBALLY, SURVEY FINDS

Adding a word of caution he said, "Some may call for him to be arrested under international legal principles for the war in Ukraine and his government’s role in it."

Meanwhile, South Africa’s not sitting on the fence. It’s invited Russian and Chinese warships to join its tiny navy in exercises on the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and joined 17 other nations at the U.N. in abstaining, rather than condemning Russia for invading Ukraine. 

Just hours after touching down in Africa, Yellen added her voice to that of a line of administration officials trying to change the African mindset: "Russia’s barbaric aggression against its neighbor is particularly being felt by Africa and its people," she said. "Russia’s war and weaponization of food has exacerbated food insecurity and caused untold suffering. And the global economic headwinds caused by the actions of a single man – President Putin – is creating an unnecessary drag on Africa’s economy."

Mvemba Dizolele, director of the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told FOX Business from Uganda that when they abstained from criticizing Russia at the U.N., countries such as South Africa were sending a message to the West that Africans have their own agendas: "These are sovereign states with various interests,’ he said. And referring to South Africa, he added: "It's been negotiating with foreign powers for a long time."

GLOBAL RECESSION LIKELY, SAY 63% OF CHIEF ECONOMISTS IN WEF SURVEY

Dizolele says this country won’t position itself "squarely behind one specific power, whether it's the United States, China or Russia, South Africa is going to decide what is in it’s best interest." Referring to Ukraine, he concluded that South Africa may well ask the U.S., "Why can't you negotiate to find a better way, as opposed to trying to coax everybody into one position?"

Most intercontinental flights arrive in Johannesburg in the early morning. As dawn breaks, passengers opening the window blinds are greeted often by a yellow sulfurous smog, demonstrating that millions in South Africa are only able to afford coal and wood in their efforts to cook and stay warm.

Yet Yellen has also made it clear that in addition to discussing Ukraine, she will try to persuade Africans to turn away from using fossil fuels. Such an argument is unlikely to be won here in South Africa, In Johannesburg, Ndzendze has this warning for Yellen: "South Africa is nowhere near ready to transition to renewable energy as its exclusive or even predominant source, and it would be catastrophic to rush to do so."

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX BUSINESS APP

The professor added, "The final decision rests with South Africa, and it is not for the U.S. or any other country to enforce. Politically it would be ill-advised and self-defeating for any U.S. official to make any insistences for South Africa to go toward green at its desired pace, given the tainted image of the United States when it comes to dictating to other countries."