Affluent splash out on premium drinks, pricey Birkin bags but clouds loom
Sales were driven by Americans using the strong dollar abroad
Retail expert reacts to 'weak' September retail sales report
Strategic Resource Group Managing Director Burt Flickinger says the September retail sales report is 'very concerning' going into the holiday season.
Brushing off higher prices, affluent spenders continue to splash out on luxuries including $10,000 handbags and premium drinks, updates from Birkin bag maker Hermes and spirits company Pernod Ricard showed on Thursday.
Yet with prices set to rise further, analysts were asking how long the boom can last before even the wealthy decide they must tighten their belts.
Hermes and Pernod Ricard both said they will continue to raise prices, after beating expectations in the July-September quarter. Business was boosted by Americans returning to Europe and Asia and taking advantage of the strong dollar. Mainland China also saw a strong rebound after COVID-19 restrictions were lifted, although some restrictions have since been reimposed.
A model presents a creation by French designer Nadege Vanhee-Cybulski as part of her Fall/Winter 2016/2017 women's ready-to-wear collection for fashion house Hermes in Paris, France, March 7, 2016. REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes/Files (Reuters Photos)
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Analysts were looking closely for signs that the post-pandemic spending boom could ease after months of robust appetite from shoppers drawing on pandemic savings to treat themselves to designer labels and champagne.
Some expect the industry's rapid sales growth to begin to slow in the fourth quarter or starting next year, with the strongest labels expected to grab market share as consumers flock to best-known names.
| Ticker | Security | Last | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HESAY | HERMÈS INTERNATIONAL SCA | 207.84 | -1.80 | -0.86% |
| PRNDY | PERNOD RICARD SA | 22.45 | -0.30 | -1.32% |
The fourth quarter will likely start to show a deceleration with "very different performance from different brands," said Flavio Cereda, an analyst at Jefferies, predicting stronger labels like Chanel, Hermes, Louis Vuitton and Dior, as well as some smaller brands like Moncler will accelerate market share gains.
| Ticker | Security | Last | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JEF | JEFFERIES FINANCIAL GROUP INC. | 76.08 | +1.14 | +1.51% |
| CHDRY | CHRISTIAN DIOR SE | 146.756 | +2.76 | +1.91% |
| MONRF | MONCLER SPA | 50.31 | -0.34 | -0.67% |
Cereda expects "no big bounce" in business in China next year citing signals from the Communist Party Congress that authorities plan to maintain COVID curbs, and in Europe, predicts the "likely disappearance of the marginal buyer", or someone who is not a regular or core luxury consumer.
Jefferies forecasts 13% sales growth for the industry this year and 7% next year.
Bottles of Chivas Regal blended Scotch whisky, produced by Pernod Ricard SA, are displayed on the campus of the HEC School of Management in Jouy-en-Josas, near Paris, France August 28, 2018. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/Files (Reuters Photos)
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PRICE RISES
The world's biggest luxury group LVMH last week kicked off the earnings season with forecast-beating sales -- and no signs of a let-up in demand.
| Ticker | Security | Last | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVMUY | LVMH MOËT HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE | 120.022 | -1.61 | -1.32% |
The U.S. market, which rose to become the world's largest luxury market last year, has been closely scrutinized for any signs of weakness, particularly among less affluent shoppers and after data from credit card sales showed a decline in luxury spending in recent months.
"There was no slowdown in consumer demand," in the United States over the quarter despite price hikes, Pernod finance chief Helene de Tissot said on Thursday, noting the company had raised prices at the start of the month in that market by mid single digits.
Pernod Ricard, which raised prices by around 7% globally over the quarter, said it was confident sales growth would remain dynamic through its 2023 fiscal year, as consumers continue to trade up to its premium spirits.
A couple walk with Hermes shopping bags as they leave an Hermes store in Paris March 21, 2013. REUTERS/Philippe Wojazer/Files (Reuters Photos)
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Hermes plans to raise prices sharply next year, following in the footsteps of rival luxury giants which have taken advantage of booming demand for fashion and handbags carrying designer labels.
Hermes, which has waiting lists for its prized $10,000-plus handbags, increased prices by around 4% this year and by 1.5-2% on average in previous years. That compares with double-digit price hikes at Chanel.
Companies catering to less affluent consumers have also so far been able to pass on price increases, trading updates from the world's two biggest consumer firms, Nestle and Procter & Gamble showed this week. Shoppers continued to pay more for goods like Nescafe coffee and Gillette razors despite surging inflation.
| Ticker | Security | Last | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSRGY | NESTLÉ SA | 85.98 | -0.89 | -1.02% |
| PG | PROCTER & GAMBLE CO. | 172.37 | +1.45 | +0.85% |
| LRLCY | L'ORÉAL SA | 67.7625 | +0.12 | +0.18% |
| PPRUY | KERING SA | 21.79 | -0.89 | -3.92% |
The results from Pernod and Hermes bode well for beauty giant L'Oreal and Gucci-owner Kering, which both report results later on Thursday.