CBO sees rapid growth in US economy starting this quarter

The latest report from the Congressional Budget Office expects the economy to “grow rapidly” in the third quarter provided taxes and spending ‘remain in place.’

The estimate for real gross domestic product (GDP) is for growth of a 12.4 percent annual rate in the second half of 2020. The expectations is for GDP to return to pre-pandemic levels by the middle of 2022.

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This forecast updates the interim projections that the CBO published in May and is the first complete set of projections through 2030 since January.

The CBO sees the unemployment rate peaking at over 14 percent in the third quarter, then fall quickly as output increases in the second half of 2020 and throughout 2021.

The unemployment rate is seen staying above its pre-pandemic level through the end of 2030.

The June jobs report, released on Thursday, reported that employers added 4.8 million jobs to their payrolls with the unemployment rate falling to 11.1 percent.

US ECONOMY CREATED 4.8M JOBS LAST MONTH: THESE INDUSTRIES SAW THE BIGGEST GAINS

Following that initial rapid recovery, the economy is expected to continue to expand, but at a more moderate rate that is similar to the pace of expansion over the past decade.

In the first quarter of 2020, the pandemic and associated social distancing ended the longest economic expansion and triggered the deepest downturn in output and employment since World War II.

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The agency plans to release its budget projections later this summer.