US job losses in May could raise 3-month total to 30 million
While the number is expected to be huge, it should indicate a slowing as more businesses gradually or partially reopen
The government will release the May employment report Friday morning before the opening bell rings on Wall Street.
Another epic number is promised.
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The overall impact of the coronavirus will come into sharper focus as eight million more jobs are estimated to have been lost. Unemployment could near 20 percent.
A sign "Now Hiring" rests in a window as a man walks out of the Corner Market, Thursday, May 28, 2020, in Lyndhurst, Ohio. The state says about 1.3 million Ohioans have filed unemployment claims in the past 10 weeks as Ohio's stay-at-home order depre
While the numbers may be unprecedented, they are showing a slowing as more businesses gradually or partially reopen. Still, a rebound in hiring will likely be painfully slow.
Economists foresee unemployment remaining in double-digits through the November elections and into 2021.
If their forecast of 8 million jobs lost in May proves correct, it would come on top of April's loss of 20.5 million jobs — the worst monthly loss on record — and bring total job cuts in the three months since the viral outbreak intensified to nearly 30 million.
People share job application information at IDES (Illinois Department of Employment Security) WorkNet center in Arlington Heights, Ill., Thursday, May 14, 2020. Nearly 3 million laid-off workers applied for U.S unemployment benefits last week as the
That's more than three times the jobs lost in the 2008-2009 Great Recession. And if the jobless rate does reach 20 percent for May, it would be double the worst level during that previous recession.
Most of the layoffs in recent months were a direct result of the sudden shutdowns of businesses in response to the coronavirus pandemic. As many of these businesses reopen, at least partially, workers who had been laid off have held out hope of being rehired soon.
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Hiring will likely rebound over the summer and fall as states and cities further lift restrictions on economic activity. But it won't match the huge job cuts this spring.
Since mid-March, more than 40 million Americans have applied for unemployment benefits. That doesn't mean that that many people are still unemployed.
Goldman Sachs estimates that up to 3 million people who were initially laid off have already been rehired.
FILE PHOTO: REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni
Weekly surveys of small businesses by the Census Bureau show an uptick in the number of such companies that are hiring and providing more hours of work, though the gains are slight. In mid-May, the most recent data available, nearly 10 percent of small companies surveyed said they had added jobs in the past week, and 12 percent said they had added hours. Both figures were roughly double their level three weeks earlier.
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Still, 16 percent said they had cut jobs, and a third said they were still cutting hours — figures that are consistent with ongoing but smaller job cuts in May.
Civil unrest in dozens of cities since the weekend in response to the killing in Minneapolis of George Floyd may also weigh on the economy in the short term, though analysts for now expect the consequences to be limited.
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Kamins said the economic damage was likely mitigated by the fact that so much activity is still closed down in large cities like New York and Washington, with many people already working from home.
The Associated Press contributed to this article.