Sanders emerges as Democratic front-runner on day of Iowa caucuses
In the Emerson College poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers, Sanders had a solid lead
On the day of the first nominating contest of the 2020 election cycle, Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has emerged as the leading progressive contender, easily toppling Elizabeth Warren as the favorite of left-wing activists in a poll released on Sunday.
In the Emerson College poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers, Sanders had a solid lead, with 28 percent. Former Vice President Joe Biden came in second with 21 percent followed by Pete Buttigieg with 15 percent and Warren with 14 percent. Amy Klobuchar was fifth, with 11 percent.
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Still, there are some factors that complicate the poll's results, which have been fluid throughout the entirety of the primary: During the Iowa caucuses, in which 41 pledged delegates are up for grabs, candidates must receive support from at least 15 percent of attendees at most caucus locations in order to achieve viability; if that threshold is not met, a candidate's supporters must realign behind a different candidate or join together with supporters of another non-viable candidate to secure a delegate. That has the potential to mix-up the rankings, with four candidates all polling strongly.
Sanders waves as he leaves after speaking at a Super Bowl watch party campaign event, Sunday. (AP Photo/John Locher)
For instance, 34 percent of respondents said there's still a chance they could change their mind about who to support during the caucuses.
Voters' second choice could prove important for Sanders in particular, Emerson research assistant Brendan Kane said in a statement. According to the poll, nearly half -- 46 percent -- of Warren supporters named Sanders as their second choice candidate. Kane said Warren is hovering close to the 15 percent viability threshold in several parts of the state.
SANDERS, WARREN SCORE BIGGEST CELEBRITY ENDORSEMENTS IN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Warren speaks at a Get Out the Caucus Rally at Simpson College in Indianola, Iowa, Sunday. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
"She is right on the edge of the 15 percent viability threshold in the first, second and third congressional districts, compared to the fourth district where she is at just 6 percent," Kane said.
Among the top candidates, Biden supporters were the most likely to say they would support the nominee, with 90 percent saying they would back the Democratic nominee, even if their candidate did not receive the nomination. By comparison, just 62 percent of Sanders supporters vowed to support the eventual nominee, with 32 percent saying it depends on who the nominee ends up being.
The poll of 853 likely Democratic caucus-goers was taken Jan. 30 to Feb. 2. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Last week, a national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found Sanders and Biden statistically tied among the party's voters across the country. Sanders was the first choice of 27 percent of Democratic primary voters, neck-and-neck with Biden, who had 26 percent. Both numbers fall within the 4.74 percent margin of error for the poll, which interviewed 428 respondents between Jan. 26-29.